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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd