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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.