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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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