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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.